A lousy week last weekend going 2-4 and dropping the season record to 19-16-1. Tulane...how can you lose to Memphis on your homecoming? Oh, well. A new week and new picks and they're all road favorites.
Stanford -7.5 at USC - The Trojans are playing well and had a very nice win last week against Notre Dame. USC is quietly becoming a pretty good team, even with the sanctions against them. Unfortunately, they're playing the Cardinal, who is loudly becoming a great team, a team that's winning like those USC teams in 2003-2005. Much like Washington last week, this is a huge step up in opponent for USC and they are going to get torn apart by Andrew Luck, the running game and Stanford's physical-never-stop attitude. The Cardinal won't quit like the Fighting Irish did last week.
Oklahoma -13.5 at Kansas State - Kansas State has had a very nice season, coming into the game 7-0, and doing it without the normal cupcake schedule Cocah Bill Snyder puts together. Oklahoma laid an egg last week at home against Texas Tech, coming out flat and having to rally to make it close (and two missed field goals away from winning it). The Sooners still control their destiny for the Big 12 title, but they need to win out. They take the first step today, as the defense and offense come out on fire and blow out the Wildcats.
Wisconsin -7.5 at Ohio State - The Badgers were slightly exposed last week and I've been concerned with their run defense since the opening game where UNLV was able to run on them. But the Buckeyes aren't very good this year and Wisconsin is going to want to get the bad taste of last week's Hail Mary loss to Michigan State out of their mouth. Russell Wilson throws for three touchdowns and Wisconsin wins comfortably.
West Virginia -6.5 at Rutgers - The Mountaineers had the stage to themselves last Friday night and were embarassed by Syracuse. They're on national television again and get a chance to show that last week's poor play was an aberration. Rutgers will not be able to keep up with West Virginia if the Mountaineers play like they can. This one gets ugly early.
Central Michigan -7 at Akron - The Chippewas should have no trouble with the Zips. Akron is averaging 16 points per game and giving up almost 36. The Chippewas are only 2-6, but they've been scoring points in their losses. This time, the points will be more than enough as they get their third win.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
The Top Ten - Week 9
The Top Ten based on how they've done this year, not in the past or based on their reputation.
- LSU - No one has a better resume than the Tigers with wins over Oregon, West Virginia and Auburn. The win over Mississippi State at the star of the year has lost some of it's luster as the Bulldogs haven't been quite up to their pre-season ranking (and why I hate them). No one has gotten closer than 13 points and the defense has been absolutely destructive, holding six opponents to 11 points or less.
- Alabama - I'm a bit surprised how well the Crimson Tide has played this year...not on defense, but on offense. Seven games with 34 or more points. And the defense is doing even better than LSU's, holding seven opponents to 11 points or less, with Arkansas having the high mark at 14. The showdown with LSU on November 5th should be a beast of a defensive battle...which of course means it will end up in a 37-35 shootout.
- Oklahoma State - The Cowboys have been as good on offense as the top two have been on defense. Oklahoma State is in the control of that second BCS spot; win out and you're in.
- Boise State - The Broncos just keep doing what they do...win. Kellen Moore is a surgeon on the field, regardless of who the receivers are and defense doesn't get nearly the credit they deserve.
- Clemson - This has to be the surprise of the year. The Tigers sitting at 8-0 with wins over Virginia Tech, Florida State and defending National Champ Auburn, a freshman in Sammy Watkins who's absolutely electric on the field and quarterback Tajh Boyd's emergence has been a pleasant surprise. But I keep waiting for Clemson to pull a Clemson and blow a game they have no business losing. It doesn't look like they should lose a game the rest of the way, but it's Clemson and I'm wary.
- Stanford - The only reason they're 6th and not 3rd is because they've really played no one. But everyone they've played, they have absolutely destroyed. Andrew Luck has command of the offense like no other quarterback in the country and wins over USC, Oregon and Notre Dame will keep them moving up the rankings.
- Oregon - If LSU is number 1, the Ducks might be number 2. They made a number of mistakes in their opening loss to the Tigers, but they continue to run their system and blow people out, even with the loss of their star running back and quarterback. Their showdown with Stanford in a few weeks will be the one that determines if they're back in a BCS game.
- Michigan State - The win over Wisconsin was big and if they can win at Nebraska this weekend, that will solidify the ranking. But the Big Ten is terrible. Wisconsin had played nobody, and it showed against Michigan State. It will be hard to move up much more with the erratic and awful play of the conference.
- Arkansas - I'm conflicted on this one. I don't think they've really played anyone other than Alabama, and the Tide completely stomped them. When you get past LSU and 'Bama, the SEC isn't very good this year (like most of the conferences). The Razorbacks shouldn't really be challenged until the season finale for the Golden Boot against LSU, but I'm not convinced that they could beat the top team in any other conference.
- Kansas State - Another one I have some doubts about, but undefeated is undefeated. They also haven't really played anyone, but they've beat them all. Their schedule picks up starting this weekend with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Win those three, and the Wildcats might be in the top 4 and looking at a BCS Championship berth. Who would have thought that at the start of the season. Unfortunately, they aren't going to beat the Sooners or the Cowboys and the Aggies probably take them behind the woodshed as well.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Picks for Oct. 22nd
A perfect week last week, going 5-0 (6-0 if you count the halftime pick on the Badgers) and the season record moves to a slightly respectable 17-12-1. As the seocnd half of the season heats up, going to try to stay hot on the picks.
at Virginia Tech -21 Boston College - Coach Frank Beamer's teams always get better as the season goes on. Virginia Tech is rolling and Boston College isn't. The Hokies are going to put a stranglehold on the Eagles offense and BC will be lucky to get to 14. Virginia Tech destroys Boston College.
Northern Illinois -14 at Buffalo - As I mentioned last week, the Huskies have put 40+ points on everyone except Wisconsin. They did it again last week and they'll do it again this week. Buffalo is not a good program and Northern Illinois is the cream of the MAC. Huskies in a blowout.
Illinois -3.5 at Purdue - Illinois got off to a surprising 6-0 start this year and then lost to an Ohio State team that completed only one pass (they only tried four). Purdue has struggled this year (losing to Rice, barely beating Middle Tennessee). Illinois will score points on the Boilermakers and even if it takes another late rally to do it because of the Zooker's coaching style, the Illini get it done.
at Tulane -12 Memphis - Never mess with a streak. Memphis is still terrible. Tulane's coach Bob Toledo resigned earlier this week. It's Homecoming for the Green Wave and you always try to schedule a patsy for Homecoming so the students and alumni go home happy (and not just from drinking). May be a bit of a struggle in the first half, but Memphis will fold like they always do and Tulane will cover.
at Stanford -20.5 Washington - Stanford is destroying their opponents, with the last 9 wins coming by 25 points or more. Washington has only played one real team, Nebraska, and were down by 27 in the fourth quarter before scoring some garbage time touchdowns to make the score a little closer. The Huskies are getting better but this is a huge step up in class and the Cardinal are going to show them they still have a long way to go to challenge for the Pac-12 title.
at Alabama -29.5 Tennessee - In their ongoing battle with LSU of "whatever you can do, I can do better", the Crimson Tide will get to take on the Vols (who lost to LSU last week by 31) and put up a comparison score before this year's "Game of the Century" on November 5th. Alabama's defense and special teams will score more than the Volunteer offense and the Crimson Tide get at least 40 and possibly keep Tennesse under 7.
Good luck this week.
at Virginia Tech -21 Boston College - Coach Frank Beamer's teams always get better as the season goes on. Virginia Tech is rolling and Boston College isn't. The Hokies are going to put a stranglehold on the Eagles offense and BC will be lucky to get to 14. Virginia Tech destroys Boston College.
Northern Illinois -14 at Buffalo - As I mentioned last week, the Huskies have put 40+ points on everyone except Wisconsin. They did it again last week and they'll do it again this week. Buffalo is not a good program and Northern Illinois is the cream of the MAC. Huskies in a blowout.
Illinois -3.5 at Purdue - Illinois got off to a surprising 6-0 start this year and then lost to an Ohio State team that completed only one pass (they only tried four). Purdue has struggled this year (losing to Rice, barely beating Middle Tennessee). Illinois will score points on the Boilermakers and even if it takes another late rally to do it because of the Zooker's coaching style, the Illini get it done.
at Tulane -12 Memphis - Never mess with a streak. Memphis is still terrible. Tulane's coach Bob Toledo resigned earlier this week. It's Homecoming for the Green Wave and you always try to schedule a patsy for Homecoming so the students and alumni go home happy (and not just from drinking). May be a bit of a struggle in the first half, but Memphis will fold like they always do and Tulane will cover.
at Stanford -20.5 Washington - Stanford is destroying their opponents, with the last 9 wins coming by 25 points or more. Washington has only played one real team, Nebraska, and were down by 27 in the fourth quarter before scoring some garbage time touchdowns to make the score a little closer. The Huskies are getting better but this is a huge step up in class and the Cardinal are going to show them they still have a long way to go to challenge for the Pac-12 title.
at Alabama -29.5 Tennessee - In their ongoing battle with LSU of "whatever you can do, I can do better", the Crimson Tide will get to take on the Vols (who lost to LSU last week by 31) and put up a comparison score before this year's "Game of the Century" on November 5th. Alabama's defense and special teams will score more than the Volunteer offense and the Crimson Tide get at least 40 and possibly keep Tennesse under 7.
Good luck this week.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Picks for Oct. 15th
A barely winning week at 3-2, brings the season record to 12-12-1.
East Carolina -14 at Memphis - You generally can't go wrong picking against Memphis and this week should be no exception. The Pirates were humiliated by Houston last weekend while Memphis kicked two field goals against Rice in a 28-6 loss. East Carolina will find the Tigers to be the cure for last weekend and roll easily.
LSU -16.5 at Tennessee - The Tigers are playing absolutely nasty on defense and now the offense is starting to move the ball with some consistency. The Volunteers are looking better, but they'll be no match for the speed and athleticism of LSU.
at Northern Illinois +1.5 Western Michigan - The Huskies have hung 40+ points on everyone they've played this season except Wisconsin. Unfortunately, for them, they've also given up 40+ points to everyone they've played on the road. They're at home this week and I think that will be enough for them to pull the mild upset over the Broncos.
Oklahoma State -7 at Texas - Oklahoma has a very good offense and they torched the Longhorns for 55 last week. Some of that was aided by Texas turnovers that led to easy points, but the Sooners exposed a young Texas team, that was highly overrated, and still is. Oklahoma State comes calling and while Mack Brown has never lost a game the week after the Red River Shootout, this is the year that streak comes to an end. The Cowboys are loaded offensively and they will be looking to make a national statement and comparison to their instate neighbors. Oklahoma State big over the Longhorns.
at Wisconsin -39.5 Indiana - The Badgers can call their score. They put 83 on Indiana last year. They need the beauty points to get the voters attention. A number in the 70's will look pretty. The only fear is that Bret Bielema will take his foot off the gas in the second half after the criticism he received last year for running it up on the Hoosiers. I don't think it will matter and they'll be close to this number by halftime. The first half line of 23.5 is a bonus pick on this game.
East Carolina -14 at Memphis - You generally can't go wrong picking against Memphis and this week should be no exception. The Pirates were humiliated by Houston last weekend while Memphis kicked two field goals against Rice in a 28-6 loss. East Carolina will find the Tigers to be the cure for last weekend and roll easily.
LSU -16.5 at Tennessee - The Tigers are playing absolutely nasty on defense and now the offense is starting to move the ball with some consistency. The Volunteers are looking better, but they'll be no match for the speed and athleticism of LSU.
at Northern Illinois +1.5 Western Michigan - The Huskies have hung 40+ points on everyone they've played this season except Wisconsin. Unfortunately, for them, they've also given up 40+ points to everyone they've played on the road. They're at home this week and I think that will be enough for them to pull the mild upset over the Broncos.
Oklahoma State -7 at Texas - Oklahoma has a very good offense and they torched the Longhorns for 55 last week. Some of that was aided by Texas turnovers that led to easy points, but the Sooners exposed a young Texas team, that was highly overrated, and still is. Oklahoma State comes calling and while Mack Brown has never lost a game the week after the Red River Shootout, this is the year that streak comes to an end. The Cowboys are loaded offensively and they will be looking to make a national statement and comparison to their instate neighbors. Oklahoma State big over the Longhorns.
at Wisconsin -39.5 Indiana - The Badgers can call their score. They put 83 on Indiana last year. They need the beauty points to get the voters attention. A number in the 70's will look pretty. The only fear is that Bret Bielema will take his foot off the gas in the second half after the criticism he received last year for running it up on the Hoosiers. I don't think it will matter and they'll be close to this number by halftime. The first half line of 23.5 is a bonus pick on this game.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Picks for Oct. 8th Games
A terrible weekend last week going 1-3-1, with Georgia Tech giving up 14 points in the last minute to push and Boise State giving up a late touchdown to not cover as well. The season record drops to 9-10-1. Hitting the halfway point of the season and time to pull it together.
Iowa +4.5 at Penn State - I don't understand this line at all. The Hawkeyes have given Penn State problems for years. The Nittany Lions' offense is terrible. The quarterback situation is still a mess. Iowa had a bye week to get healthy. What makes people think Penn State can win this game? It will be ugly, but I think Iowa wins outright in Happy Valley.
TCU -4.5 at San Diego State - This has already happened this year. TCU lost to an opponent that they were favored to beat and then came back the following week and laid it on the opponent. Head Coach Gary Patterson is too good to let the Horned Frogs lose two in a row. They'll clean it up this weekend and physically dominate the Aztecs.
at Virginia Tech -7.5 Miami - The turnover machine that is Jacory Harris comes into Blacksburg after the Hokies suffered an embarrassing loss last week. Virginia Tech will pick off Harris at least 2 times and will pick up a defensive touchdown as they beat the Hurricanes.
at Stanford -29.5 Colorado - A showcase opportunity for Andrew Luck. Colorado is terrible and has a very realistic chance of going 1-11. Stanford needs to keep winning big and the Buffaloes get run over at Palo Alto.
at Clemson -21.5 Boston College - This is the type of game that in past years Clemson would go out and choke on. Something feels different about this Tiger team and they just might be special. Plus, it helps to play a team that is a complete mess in Boston College. Clemson gets up early and the Eagles are lucky to hit double-digits.
Iowa +4.5 at Penn State - I don't understand this line at all. The Hawkeyes have given Penn State problems for years. The Nittany Lions' offense is terrible. The quarterback situation is still a mess. Iowa had a bye week to get healthy. What makes people think Penn State can win this game? It will be ugly, but I think Iowa wins outright in Happy Valley.
TCU -4.5 at San Diego State - This has already happened this year. TCU lost to an opponent that they were favored to beat and then came back the following week and laid it on the opponent. Head Coach Gary Patterson is too good to let the Horned Frogs lose two in a row. They'll clean it up this weekend and physically dominate the Aztecs.
at Virginia Tech -7.5 Miami - The turnover machine that is Jacory Harris comes into Blacksburg after the Hokies suffered an embarrassing loss last week. Virginia Tech will pick off Harris at least 2 times and will pick up a defensive touchdown as they beat the Hurricanes.
at Stanford -29.5 Colorado - A showcase opportunity for Andrew Luck. Colorado is terrible and has a very realistic chance of going 1-11. Stanford needs to keep winning big and the Buffaloes get run over at Palo Alto.
at Clemson -21.5 Boston College - This is the type of game that in past years Clemson would go out and choke on. Something feels different about this Tiger team and they just might be special. Plus, it helps to play a team that is a complete mess in Boston College. Clemson gets up early and the Eagles are lucky to hit double-digits.
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