Monday, November 28, 2011

UCLA Should Hire Pete Carroll

With the predictable firing of UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel today, the Bruins are once more searching for a head coach.  And it's time for them to make some waves.  Rumors of them talking to Boise State's Chris Petersen is a start, but while he's an excellent coach, he doesn't bring the buzz that the Bruins need.  Not after a decade of mediocrity to dismal play.  They need someone who can help close the gap between UCLA and USC (and that gap apparently is as big as the Grand Canyon after the 50-0 crosstown beat down).  The man to do it is the one who created that gap...Pete Carroll.

The new head coach of the Bruins?
Bruin fans, settle down.  I can already hear your cries of "That's the enemy" and "We don't want Pete the Cheat".  Be reasonable and hear me out.  The Bruins are a bad football team and worse, their fan base is becoming apathetic.  They can't get a quarterback to come play in southern California on a gorgeous campus.  They can't get a running back who can go for 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns.  They haven't played defense in years.  Pete Carroll can get all of those things.  And...he can make the Bruins relevant.

Carroll is/was the ideal college coach.  He loved being the Big Man on Campus and had fun doing everything related to the game - interviews, talking with fans, promoting the team.  He's what UCLA needs.  Can you imagine the energy for UCLA football next year?  Dan Guerrero, think of the season ticket sales.  Sure, some fans will think you've brought the enemy in to camp, but you'll get a whole lot more who will be excited about him being there.  You're losing millions each weekend when you're not selling out the Rose Bowl.  Pete can put them in the seats.

Carroll would also bring innovation to the offense and ferocity to the defense.  Those Trojan title teams had both.  They had stars on both sides of the ball.  But what about Pete's baggage from his time at USC?  The NCAA spent five years investigating and they couldn't come up with anything to place on Carroll.  If there was something there, don't you think it would have shown up?  Wouldn't some closet Notre Dame or UCLA fan have blown the whistle on him to cause the empire to crumble?  No one did.

Finally, think of how hiring Pete Carroll would get under all of the USC fans' skin.  The coach who returned them to glory after years of futility is now patrolling the rivals sideline in powder blue and gold, returning the Bruins to glory and Rose Bowls (yes, the Bruins used to be regular participants in that game many years ago).  If you're going to pay $4 million for Chris Petersen, why not step it up a bit more and bring in Pete Carroll?  He could make national title dreams a reality.

The Regular Season Doesn't Matter

#1 Team in College Football
The people who run college football continually tell us that the reason we don't need a playoff is because every regular season game matters; every game is a playoff.  Not this year.  The BCS pundits are already saying that LSU vs Alabama for the national title is a done deal, even if LSU loses.  If every game matters, and LSU already beat Alabama in Alabama, shouldn't that have knocked the Crimson Tide out of the running, never mind the fact that 'Bama didn't even win their conference, let alone win their division.  Ahhh, but we have precedent, because if there's one thing the BCS is good at, it's stupid decisions.

In 2001, Nebraska was routed in their final regular season game by Colorado, 62-36.  Colorado won the division and won the Big-12 Championship.  But since every game matters, the embarrassed Cornhuskers were invited to play Miami for the championship, because apparently that last game didn't really matter and not winning your conference wasn't seen as being too important either.  Nebraska followed up that blowout loss to the Buffaloes with another stellar performance against the Hurricanes, falling behind 34-0 at halftime before showing a bit of a pulse and losing only 37-14.

But this year is worse.  LSU went into Alabama's home and beat them.  Granted, it was an ugly 9-6 overtime win, with four missed Crimson Tide field goals contributing to the loss.  But the Tigers won and didn't lose the rest of the year.  Game over, 'Bama.  So why should LSU play the SEC Championship game to get into the National Championship Game while Alabama sits at home, resting and nursing their injuries?  Why should LSU have to beat them again?  If Alabama wins, the season series is tied 1-1.  If LSU wins, well, they already did that. 

Alabama may be the second best team in the country but they already had their chance and they failed.  You don't get a do-over.  So who should be in the title game?  Well, LSU still has to take care of Georgia in the SEC Championship.  They should beat them soundly, since LSU isn't Oklahoma in conference championships.  The Tigers are in.  Their opponent should be one of the following:

Will the voters move a Big-12 Champion
to the tile game?
Oklahoma State, if they beat Oklahoma this Saturday (not a foregone conclusion).  The Cowboys have one loss, in double-overtime on the day they found out assistant coaches for their women's basketball team had died in a plane crash.  Granted, it was to Iowa State, but it was played at Iowa State and with heavy hearts.  If they beat the Sooners, they will be the champs of the best conference in college football this year.  If they lose...

Virginia Tech, if they can avenge their loss to Clemson.  The Hokies have rolled since that loss and unfortunately for the Tigers, they have been a mess the last few weeks.  Why is it fair that Virginia Tech gets a chance to beat Clemson after getting buried by them early in the season but I'm not willing to give Alabama that same opportunity?  Well, it's the ACC Championship game and that's how the schedule worked out this year.  If Alabama was in the SEC East and lost to LSU but still won their division, I'd have no problem with the rematch...in the conference championship game.  Championship games might make your conference some money, but you potentially screw your best team.  If Clemson some how gets their act together and plays like they did the first eight weeks and not the last three and beats the Hokies again, then it's...

Stanford.  No, same argument as Alabama.  The Cardinal didn't win their division and they didn't win their conference.  They had a great season, but the Oregon game mattered and they got destroyed.

Oregon.  No, same argument as Alabama, in that they don't get a rematch.  LSU beat them in the first game of the year, but they knew that was a potential elimination game.  Credit to the Ducks for scheduling it and if they wouldn't have lost to USC two weeks ago, I'd almost say they could get in based on having the loss in that first game than winning twelve in a row and being the Pac-12 Champion.  But the Ducks have two losses and beating up on UCLA in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship isn't going to help.

Wisconsin/Michigan State winner.  No, though Wisconsin is close.  They blew out everyone they played except for the two losses.  Back-to-back heart breakers on back-to-back miracles by Michigan State and Ohio State.  If not for those few minutes, Wisconsin is in.  Michigan State got blown out by Notre Dame and Nebraska, so even with a win in the Big Ten Championship game, they can't go.

Why not us?
Houston.  If the Cougars beat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Championship game, they will be the only other unbeaten at 13-0.  And while they may play in a mid-major conference, they've beaten everyone they played and are crushing teams now and not just on offense behind Case Keenum.  The defense has stepped up as well and even in the fourth quarter when the backups are in, they're still shutting people down.  Why not give the non-automatic qualifier a shot this year?  Then if LSU beats them 45-7, the BCS conferences can laugh and say, "See, they're not really that good."  But if they win...well, what kind of ESPN 30 for 30 film will that be?

My prediction:  LSU handles Georgia.  Oklahoma State at home finally figures out a way to beat Oklahoma.  Virginia Tech takes care of Clemson.  Alabama sits on their couches watching all of this unfold.  And then on Sunday, LSU finds out they're playing Alabama again.  Well done, BCS.  Well done.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Picks for Nov. 19

Rolled on the MAC games but the others didn't go as well and finished up 2-3 last week to fall to 26-23-1 for the year.  This week's picks shine the light on teams who have a chance to make a statement after Oklahoma State's upset loss to Iowa State last night.

at Oregon -15 USC - Oregon has one blemish on their record, the opening game loss to LSU.  Since then, they've been rolling and with Oklahoma State's loss, they have the chance to jump up and try to set up a rematch with LSU in the Championship Game.  Autzen Stadium has been tough on the Trojans the last few years and their lack of depth will leave them gassed as the game goes on.  The Ducks will keep the pedal down and run it up on USC.

at Stanford -17.5 Cal - The Big Game.  Stanford suffered a huge blow to their national title hopes, but with Oklahoma State losing, they still have a shot if they can get some help.  And they can start off by helping themselves and throttling Cal.  Cal's wins have all come against inferior opponents and when they've played the good teams in the Pac-12, they've gotten torched.  Stanford is one of the best teams in the Pac-12, it's a rivalry game and it's at home.  The Cardinal big.

Oklahoma -16 at Baylor - Thanks to the Cowboys loss, the Sooners have a shot to play for the national title.  It would have been better for them if Oklahoma State went into Bedlam unbeaten, but now Oklahoma knows they have to roll Baylor and OSU.  Baylor can score some points, but they don't play any semblance of defense and they haven't faced a defense like the Sooners.  If Oklahoma is focused, they get up early and they pull away by the third quarter.

Kansas State +9.5 at Texas - I still don't see what people see in Texas this year.  They've been mediocre at best and against good teams, they've faded.  The Wildcats were a tad overrated when they were unbeaten, but they're still better than the Longhorns at this point.  I look for Kansas State to not only cover, but to win this game outright.

at Houston -19.5 SMU - Houston has the opportunity to bust the BCS this year and a big win over the Mustangs will help their cause.  SMU has struggled the last few weeks and Cougars' QB Case Keenum will continue to add to his NCAA records as Houston moves to 11-0.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Picks for Nov. 12

Missed by half a point on the Cincy vs Pitt game from having a 3-1 week last week.  After another 2-2 week, the season record goes to 24-20-1.  I spent last week touring the MAC and this week's picks reflect that, both in MAC teams and all road teams.

Kent State -5 at Akron - I watched Akron in the pouring rain last week against Miami, OH and saw their offense really do nothing as they lost 35-3.  Granted, some of that had to do with the weather, but the Redhawks were able to move the ball and put up points.  This is a rivalry game, but the Golden Flashes seem a little more together and should be able to withstand the initial energy of the Zips before wearing them out and winning by double digits.

Eastern Michigan -3.5 at Buffalo - The Eagles are one win away from being bowl eligible (though what kind of bowl, if any, they'll go to remains a mystery).  The Bulls put up a late fourth quarter rally to make their game against Northern Illinois close, but they have been giving up points in bunches the last five games and have been blown out in three of those.  Eastern Michigan takes the Bulls out by two touchdowns.

Auburn +13 at Georgia - Yes, Georgia is 7-2. Yes, they control their destiny in the SEC East.  But they aren't winning games by two touchdowns against teams with a pulse.  Auburn's offense has been erratic this year and against the good defenses, they have been held in check.  But the Bulldogs defense isn't LSU and the Tigers will put points on the scoreboard and keep it close.

Ohio State -8 at Purdue - The play of Ohio State's offense is starting to catch up to that of their defense.  Purdue appears to have packed it in for the season, quitting last week against Wisconsin and getting blown out by Michigan the week before.  The Bukeyes have a chance to get to the Big Ten Championship game and a win this weekend will set up a showdown with Penn State next week.  They'll be focused today and the Boilermakers will be lucky to get two scores.  This one will never be in doubt.

Baylor -20 at Kansas - Somehow, Kansas held an opponent to 13 points last week (and still lost).  Baylor has shown they can put points on the board in bunches.  And while the Bears are scoring lots of points, they also have the second worst scoring defense in the Big 12.  But I've got to believe the Jayhawks are going to revert back to the way they've played all season and Baylor will get 50-plus today and while Kansas may score, they won't stay within three touchdowns of the Bears.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Picks for Nov. 5

A bit of a disappointment last week, going 3-2, hurt by Central Michigan's failure to close with a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. 22-18-1 on the year and time to press on.

Arizona State -9.5 at UCLA - This seems like a lead-pipe lock the way the two teams are going this year. The Bruins did handle Cal last week, but that seems like a fluke based on their body of work so far (and the fact that Cal maybe isn't very good either). The Sun Devils are closin in on the South division title and the Bruins will be a minor bump on their way to the PAC-12 championship game.

Oregon -16.5 at Washington - The Huskies have played one good team this year and were absolutely run over by Stanford. The Ducks run the ball pretty well, too, and they have been on atoll since the opening game loss to LSU. Look for Washington to experience some more growing pains as the Ducks keep winning heading into their showdown with Stanford.

Stanford -20.5 Oregon State - The Cardinal got a scare last week and were lucky to get the cover against USC last week. Look for them to return to their ways of beating teams by 25 or more points again this weekend as an unremarkable Beavers' squad plays out the string.

Cincinnati -3.5 Pittsburgh - The Bearcats have been very good this year while Pitt has been somewhat erratic. The loss of Ray Graham only hurts the Panthers chances at scoring the upset, but this is the Big East, where stranger things have happened. I think Cincinnati is better than people think and steamrolls Pitt this weekend.