Monday, November 28, 2011

The Regular Season Doesn't Matter

#1 Team in College Football
The people who run college football continually tell us that the reason we don't need a playoff is because every regular season game matters; every game is a playoff.  Not this year.  The BCS pundits are already saying that LSU vs Alabama for the national title is a done deal, even if LSU loses.  If every game matters, and LSU already beat Alabama in Alabama, shouldn't that have knocked the Crimson Tide out of the running, never mind the fact that 'Bama didn't even win their conference, let alone win their division.  Ahhh, but we have precedent, because if there's one thing the BCS is good at, it's stupid decisions.

In 2001, Nebraska was routed in their final regular season game by Colorado, 62-36.  Colorado won the division and won the Big-12 Championship.  But since every game matters, the embarrassed Cornhuskers were invited to play Miami for the championship, because apparently that last game didn't really matter and not winning your conference wasn't seen as being too important either.  Nebraska followed up that blowout loss to the Buffaloes with another stellar performance against the Hurricanes, falling behind 34-0 at halftime before showing a bit of a pulse and losing only 37-14.

But this year is worse.  LSU went into Alabama's home and beat them.  Granted, it was an ugly 9-6 overtime win, with four missed Crimson Tide field goals contributing to the loss.  But the Tigers won and didn't lose the rest of the year.  Game over, 'Bama.  So why should LSU play the SEC Championship game to get into the National Championship Game while Alabama sits at home, resting and nursing their injuries?  Why should LSU have to beat them again?  If Alabama wins, the season series is tied 1-1.  If LSU wins, well, they already did that. 

Alabama may be the second best team in the country but they already had their chance and they failed.  You don't get a do-over.  So who should be in the title game?  Well, LSU still has to take care of Georgia in the SEC Championship.  They should beat them soundly, since LSU isn't Oklahoma in conference championships.  The Tigers are in.  Their opponent should be one of the following:

Will the voters move a Big-12 Champion
to the tile game?
Oklahoma State, if they beat Oklahoma this Saturday (not a foregone conclusion).  The Cowboys have one loss, in double-overtime on the day they found out assistant coaches for their women's basketball team had died in a plane crash.  Granted, it was to Iowa State, but it was played at Iowa State and with heavy hearts.  If they beat the Sooners, they will be the champs of the best conference in college football this year.  If they lose...

Virginia Tech, if they can avenge their loss to Clemson.  The Hokies have rolled since that loss and unfortunately for the Tigers, they have been a mess the last few weeks.  Why is it fair that Virginia Tech gets a chance to beat Clemson after getting buried by them early in the season but I'm not willing to give Alabama that same opportunity?  Well, it's the ACC Championship game and that's how the schedule worked out this year.  If Alabama was in the SEC East and lost to LSU but still won their division, I'd have no problem with the rematch...in the conference championship game.  Championship games might make your conference some money, but you potentially screw your best team.  If Clemson some how gets their act together and plays like they did the first eight weeks and not the last three and beats the Hokies again, then it's...

Stanford.  No, same argument as Alabama.  The Cardinal didn't win their division and they didn't win their conference.  They had a great season, but the Oregon game mattered and they got destroyed.

Oregon.  No, same argument as Alabama, in that they don't get a rematch.  LSU beat them in the first game of the year, but they knew that was a potential elimination game.  Credit to the Ducks for scheduling it and if they wouldn't have lost to USC two weeks ago, I'd almost say they could get in based on having the loss in that first game than winning twelve in a row and being the Pac-12 Champion.  But the Ducks have two losses and beating up on UCLA in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship isn't going to help.

Wisconsin/Michigan State winner.  No, though Wisconsin is close.  They blew out everyone they played except for the two losses.  Back-to-back heart breakers on back-to-back miracles by Michigan State and Ohio State.  If not for those few minutes, Wisconsin is in.  Michigan State got blown out by Notre Dame and Nebraska, so even with a win in the Big Ten Championship game, they can't go.

Why not us?
Houston.  If the Cougars beat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Championship game, they will be the only other unbeaten at 13-0.  And while they may play in a mid-major conference, they've beaten everyone they played and are crushing teams now and not just on offense behind Case Keenum.  The defense has stepped up as well and even in the fourth quarter when the backups are in, they're still shutting people down.  Why not give the non-automatic qualifier a shot this year?  Then if LSU beats them 45-7, the BCS conferences can laugh and say, "See, they're not really that good."  But if they win...well, what kind of ESPN 30 for 30 film will that be?

My prediction:  LSU handles Georgia.  Oklahoma State at home finally figures out a way to beat Oklahoma.  Virginia Tech takes care of Clemson.  Alabama sits on their couches watching all of this unfold.  And then on Sunday, LSU finds out they're playing Alabama again.  Well done, BCS.  Well done.

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