Week 5 Picks

Random musings from the past week...

Why don't teams line up under center when they have less than a yard to go? You don't have to take every snap from the shotgun and it just seems like you put yourself at a disadvantage starting 4 to 7 yards deep to gain that one yard. Clemson, you were a shining example of how not to gain less than a yard multiple times last week against Florida State, including a snap over your head at the goal line that probably cost you a victory. But Clemson wasn't the only one, as multiple teams have failed to convert short distance by starting in the shotgun.

If UCLA plays like they did in the 2nd and 3rd quarters last night against Arizona State, no one is going to beat them this year. Down 17-6 and then outscore the Sun Devils 42-3 over the next 22 minutes. Offense, defense and special teams. Best performance on all sides of the ball by a team I've seen this year for a sustained period.

Current Final Four (in alphabetical order): Alabama (defense not up to Nick Saban standards yet, but the Lane Kiffin offense is humming), Oklahoma (offense and defense are hammering opponents), Oregon (the seven sacks allowed last week against Washington State are a concern, but as long as Marcus Mariota is healthy, the Ducks will roll) and UCLA (as long as they continue to do what they did to Arizona State).

Outside looking in: Texas A&M (who have they beaten? South Carolina's defense isn't very good.), Florida State (not nearly as dominant as last year), Baylor (the Bears will get their chance to move in when they get into Big 12 play) and Nebraska (someone from the Big Ten has to be in the discussion. Michigan State, you'll get in the discussion if you don't lose again.)

Dumpster Fire Four: SMU (lone offensive touchdown on a Hail Mary at the end of a game they lost 43-6 to North Texas), Connecticut (offense is anemic and lone win is 19-16 over Stony Brook), Massachusetts (you know you're horrible when the MAC has asked you to leave), Vanderbilt (their only win was holding off Massachusetts...see above) and UNLV (only win a 13-12 victory over Northern Colorado).


3-2 last week on the picks, taking the season record to 6-6. Time to get above .500.

TCU -32 at SMU - The Mustangs can't score, averaging 4 points per game. The Horned Frogs have the defense to potentially pitch the shutout and the offense will get their work in and get their points. TCU wins by at least 37.

Maryland +4 at Indiana - The Hoosiers had a big upset win last week against Missouri. The Terps blasted Syracuse. Here's thinking Indiana is still suffering from a hangover win, the Terps keep it close and might even win this straight up.

at Penn State -11 vs Northwestern - Northwestern has been a mess since the middle of last year. Penn State is unbeaten and unbelievably could be the Big Ten champion if they keep winning. The dream will stay alive this week as the Nittany Lions go to 5-0.

Bowling Green -5 at Massachusetts - The Minutemen are terrible. Bowling Green isn't great, but they should be able to beat UMass by more than five.

Iowa -9 at Purdue - This one's tough. Iowa has been way, way overrated for a number of years. Purdue is really, really bad. The Hawkeyes might still be reveling in the fact that they beat another Power 5 conference team last week and come out flat, but the Boilermakers defense is nearly non-existent and the offense isn't much better. Iowa gets it done...barely.

Baylor -21.5 at Iowa State - Baylor has picked up right where they left off last regular season, destroying opponents in the first 30 minutes and coasting to victory. The offense takes a little dip when they go on the road, but three touchdowns shouldn't be a problem. The Bears by 30 plus.

Week 4 Picks

A 3-4 start to the season on the picks. Time to get back to making picks and trying to turn around the record.

South Carolina -21.5 at Vanderbilt - The Gamecocks had a nice win against Georgia last week, even if it was only by inches. Vanderbilt had to fight to hold off a terrible Massachusetts team. Chance for Spurrier's team to flex their muscle and tune up their offense before getting to the tougher part of their schedule. South Carolina should have no trouble with the Commodores.

Marshall -9 at Akron - The Thundering Herd has an outside, outside chance of making it to one of the big bowls as one of the Other 5 Conferences representatives. To do that, they'll need to dominate everyone on an extremely weak schedule. The Zips were good against Howard in their opener, not so good against Penn State in their next game. Marshall will get up by double-digits in the first half and cruise to 4-0.

Oklahoma -7.5 at West Virginia - A couple years ago, the Sooners escaped Morgantown in a wild game, 50-49. Oklahoma's defense is looking absolutely nasty so far this year and their offense is burying people early in the game and then just easing to victory. West Virginia gave Alabama a game in their opener but I'm not sure the Crimson Tide defense is quite as good as it's been the last few years. The Mountaineers score some points, but too little late as Oklahoma puts in another claim to be one of the final four.

North Carolina +2.5 at East Carolina - For all the flak the Big Ten takes about being not very good, the ACC isn't much better. They do have the defending National Champion in Florida State, but the rest of the conference isn't great. East Carolina played South Carolina tough a couple weeks ago and upset Virgina Tech last week. This feels like a hangover game for the Pirates and the Tar Heels get by.

Texas A&M -34 at SMU - Going with all road teams this week and while the spread is large, the Aggies are rolling on offense and SMU is still trying to figure things out after head coach June Jones stepped down after two games this year. A&M needs the style points to stay in the discussion for the final four and beating SMU by less than five touchdowns won't help that. Aggies tempo wears out the Mustangs and they stay unbeaten.

The Little Ten

Even FCS schools are taking shots at the Big Ten.

Ahh, the poor Big Ten. After getting destroyed last weekend in their big showdown games - Michigan State losing to Oregon (though most teams would lose to Oregon at Autzen), Michigan getting shutout by Notre Dame and Ohio State losing at home, at night, to Virginia Tech - and having the media kill them all week, they followed it up with another poor showing in Week 3. And some of the quotes from coaches involved in the game just made it even worse.

Yes, there was some cheering to be heard. Ohio State bounced back and took out Kent State 66-0. And Michigan beat Miami (the bad one from Ohio, not the okay one from Florida). Hey, don't laugh, the MAC has owned the Big Ten this year. Nebraska shook off the near loss to McNeese State by putting up "double nickels" on a Fresno State team that played marginal defense last year and now plays none as they gave up at least "half-a-hundred" for the third straight game. Penn State beat new Big Ten member Rutgers 13-10 with the help of five Gary Nova interceptions, so that's a wash.

Everything else was a disaster. Bowling Green beat Indiana (the MAC is owning the Big Ten's middle tier teams this year); West Virginia got by Maryland in overtime; Iowa decided to try and ice the Iowa State kicker with a timeout...he missed the kick that didn't count then nailed the game winner. Thanks, Coach Ferentz, for that brilliant piece of strategy. Three losses in four years to the Cyclones. Notre Dame whipped Purdue, but in a slight moral victory, it was close at the half.

"We should have moved to the Big Ten instead of the Big XII...
neither one can count and we could make a couple Rose Bowls."
-Gary Patterson, TCU Head Coach

Minnesota traveled to TCU and showed they didn't belong on the same field as the Horned Frogs, losing 30-7. When TCU head coach Gary Patterson was asked after the game about his offense's progress this year, he had this to say: "I have no idea. We played Samford and then played a Big Ten team." A team only a couple years removed from the Mountain West taking shots...

Illinois wrapped it up by losing 44-19 to a Washington team that had struggled with Hawaii and Eastern Washington. And sticking with Big Ten delusions of grandeur, Illini Head Coach Tim Beckham had this to say: "You take out 21 points on three big plays and we're in this football game." Ummm, okay. You still lose 23-19, but if that counts for something in the Big Ten, you go ahead and take that. I guess it's better than losing by two touchdowns or more.

Now we roll into week four and conference play starts in earnest. And beating other Big Ten schools just isn't going to help the perception of the conference. Good job Big Ten on going 1-10 against the other Power 5 conferences (Rutgers beating Washington State on the opening Thursday). That's the same amount of wins as the Sun Belt has against the Power 5 (Louisiana-Monroe beating Wake Forest the first weekend).

The chances of the Big Ten getting a team into the College Football Playoff this year is dwindling each week, and their fans are going to go ballistic if two SEC teams get in over their conference champion, but you only have yourselves to blame, Big Ten.