Week 5 Picks

Random musings from the past week...

Why don't teams line up under center when they have less than a yard to go? You don't have to take every snap from the shotgun and it just seems like you put yourself at a disadvantage starting 4 to 7 yards deep to gain that one yard. Clemson, you were a shining example of how not to gain less than a yard multiple times last week against Florida State, including a snap over your head at the goal line that probably cost you a victory. But Clemson wasn't the only one, as multiple teams have failed to convert short distance by starting in the shotgun.

If UCLA plays like they did in the 2nd and 3rd quarters last night against Arizona State, no one is going to beat them this year. Down 17-6 and then outscore the Sun Devils 42-3 over the next 22 minutes. Offense, defense and special teams. Best performance on all sides of the ball by a team I've seen this year for a sustained period.

Current Final Four (in alphabetical order): Alabama (defense not up to Nick Saban standards yet, but the Lane Kiffin offense is humming), Oklahoma (offense and defense are hammering opponents), Oregon (the seven sacks allowed last week against Washington State are a concern, but as long as Marcus Mariota is healthy, the Ducks will roll) and UCLA (as long as they continue to do what they did to Arizona State).

Outside looking in: Texas A&M (who have they beaten? South Carolina's defense isn't very good.), Florida State (not nearly as dominant as last year), Baylor (the Bears will get their chance to move in when they get into Big 12 play) and Nebraska (someone from the Big Ten has to be in the discussion. Michigan State, you'll get in the discussion if you don't lose again.)

Dumpster Fire Four: SMU (lone offensive touchdown on a Hail Mary at the end of a game they lost 43-6 to North Texas), Connecticut (offense is anemic and lone win is 19-16 over Stony Brook), Massachusetts (you know you're horrible when the MAC has asked you to leave), Vanderbilt (their only win was holding off Massachusetts...see above) and UNLV (only win a 13-12 victory over Northern Colorado).


3-2 last week on the picks, taking the season record to 6-6. Time to get above .500.

TCU -32 at SMU - The Mustangs can't score, averaging 4 points per game. The Horned Frogs have the defense to potentially pitch the shutout and the offense will get their work in and get their points. TCU wins by at least 37.

Maryland +4 at Indiana - The Hoosiers had a big upset win last week against Missouri. The Terps blasted Syracuse. Here's thinking Indiana is still suffering from a hangover win, the Terps keep it close and might even win this straight up.

at Penn State -11 vs Northwestern - Northwestern has been a mess since the middle of last year. Penn State is unbeaten and unbelievably could be the Big Ten champion if they keep winning. The dream will stay alive this week as the Nittany Lions go to 5-0.

Bowling Green -5 at Massachusetts - The Minutemen are terrible. Bowling Green isn't great, but they should be able to beat UMass by more than five.

Iowa -9 at Purdue - This one's tough. Iowa has been way, way overrated for a number of years. Purdue is really, really bad. The Hawkeyes might still be reveling in the fact that they beat another Power 5 conference team last week and come out flat, but the Boilermakers defense is nearly non-existent and the offense isn't much better. Iowa gets it done...barely.

Baylor -21.5 at Iowa State - Baylor has picked up right where they left off last regular season, destroying opponents in the first 30 minutes and coasting to victory. The offense takes a little dip when they go on the road, but three touchdowns shouldn't be a problem. The Bears by 30 plus.