Saturday, November 27, 2010

Picks for Nov. 27th Games

3-0-1 last week and the season record is up to 20-15-2.

Central Florida -26 at Memphis - Memphis is playing better, though that's a relative term based on how bad they were for most of the season.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, Central Florida comes in with a chance to have a 10-win season with a win here and a win in the Conference USA championship game.  The Knights put the Tigers out of their misery early.

at Ohio State -16.5 Michigan - The Buckeyes still have a shot at the Big Ten championship and now with Boise State's loss and with the help of some upsets, have a chance to move further up in the standings and could end up in the BCS Title game *shudder*.  Michigan will put up some points, but they still don't play defense and the Buckeyes will win again.

North Carolina State -2 at Maryland - The Wolfpack have the opportunity to get to the ACC Title game with a win against the Terrapins.  The experience of NC State quarterback Russell Wilson will be the difference in a close game.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Picks for Nov. 20th Games

Another 2-2 week, running the season record to 17-15-1.

Ohio State -3 at Iowa - I'm still not convinced the Buckeyes have beaten anyone with a steady pulse this year, but Coach Tressel owns Iowa and the Hawkeyes are reeling after seeing their potential dream season crumble over the last few weeks.

Tennessee -9 at Vanderbilt - Where did this Volunteer team come from?  They stuggle to score more than twice a game for weeks, then get 24 against South Carolina and break 50 against Memphis and Mississippi.  Don't know if they'll get to 50 against the Commodores, but they'll win by double digits.

Stanford -6.5 at Cal - Stanford has beaten Cal once in the last eight tries.  Those Cardinal teams weren't very good and the Bears were pretty good.  Now, Cal isn't very good and Stanford is really good.  After the close win against Arizona last week and the tough loss to Cal last year, look for Harbaugh to keep the hammer down against their rivals.

Wisconsin -4 at Michigan - The Wolverines have played three teams this year who play some defense - Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State.  They lost all three by 10 or more.  Take the Badgers to keep rolling towards a BCS game.  They won't get 83 this weekend, but they'll get over 40 against that porous Michigan defense.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Week 11 Top 10 and Thoughts

Everyone in my Top 10 won last week, but there's a little shake up near the top.
  1. Boise State - The Broncos have done everything they've been asked to do this year.  They traveled all the way across the country to take on Virginia Tech in a virtual home game for the Hokies and beat them.  They beat Oregon State by more than TCU beat the Beavers.  They have destroyed every other team on their schedule, just like they were supposed to.  There have been no close games, no scares, no struggling to get by a lesser team.  They play offense, defense and special teams.  They're my number one.
  2. Auburn - The Tigers jump from #4 to #2 with the big win over Georgia, with all the distractions surrounding the program and Cam Newton.  Auburn at this point is "all in" with Newton and hoping the NCAA drags their feet like they always do when it comes to these kind of things and that they get their shot at winning a National Title.  Who cares if they take it away in two years or 5 years?  On the field, they'll be considered the champions. 
  3. Oregon - The Ducks take a tumble in the polls and while some might see it as a great way of getting by a team when they didn't have their "A-Game", Oregon was exposed by Cal.  And the Bears aren't that good.  Oregon never got things going and only scored one offensive touchdown after rolling everyone else.  The Ducks need to get back to business or Arizona or Oregon State will knock them off (and doesn't it happen every year that Oregon blows a game they shouldn't?).
  4. TCU - San Diego State is better than people think (and are a bad call away in the last minute from beating Missouri and being 8-2).  But the Horned Frogs need to do what Boise State does and beat the teams they are supposed to beat by a lot. 
  5. Stanford - Still the best one-loss team in the country but the gap narrowed a bit this past weekend with the close win over Arizona State.
  6. Wisconsin - 83.  Let that sink in for a second.  83 points against a Big 10 team.  Admit it people, the Big 10 isn't that good, and I'm a Big 10 fan.  Still, the Badgers are a pretty good team and a Wisconsin vs Stanford Rose Bowl would be a great slobber-knocker of a game.
  7. LSU - The Tigers beat another late SEC out of conference cream puff.  These games just hurt your cause, SEC fan.  Yeah, you have all these teams winning 7+ games and put 9 teams in bowl games, but when you play four cupcakes out of conference and don't travel more than 400 miles for any game and don't go above the Mason-Dixon line once the weather turns cold and all you have to do is win two conference games to be bowl eligible...well, really, how good is your conference?
  8. Nebraska - Hold their ground, just barely over Oklahoma State, but they did beat the Cowboys head-to-head.
  9. Oklahoma State - The victory over Texas would have meant a lot more if it was achieved in the last four or five years when the Longhorns were good, but OSU is still a dangerous team that will probably get matched up against a team in a bowl game that can actually play defense and get beaten.
  10. Michigan State - Had a bye week last week.  Have another bye this week (though they do have to scrimmage against Purdue).
Thoughts on Week 10:

Okay, Auburn.  You're obviously putting all your chips in on Cam Newton and either hoping there's just a bunch of smoke and no real fire or you're hoping that the NCAA moves as quickly as they usually do in these cases and you'll get the invite to the BCS Championship Game and get your National Championship.  In the event that the Tigers do go to the BCS title game and then are found guilty of paying Mr. Newton to come play for them, I think a great penalty for Auburn (and the SEC, because you're dirty in this too) would be to have to pay back all of the money that the school received from the BCS appearance...and all the money that was given to the other teams in the conference because of the appearance would also have to be paid back by those schools as well.  There is no reason they should be able to keep that money, since it was illegally attained.  Pay it back and give it to the team and conference that was next in line to go.

It gets cold on the plains.
Continuing on Auburn and Cam Newton...If Cam's father was shopping his son's services around to the highest bidder, and Auburn ended up paying for a player, the NCAA has no choice but to drop the guillotine and give the Tigers the "death penalty".  This isn't Reggie Bush's parents getting money, a car and a house for his parents for future earnings.  This is a university paying a player to come to their school to play football.  I'm in favor of the athletes getting paid; they generate millions of dollars for the school.  But it's currently against the rules, and an example needs to be made.  Auburn's program would need to be killed and everyone has to go...from the athletic director to the head coach to the assistants to the waterboys.  NCAA...either you're serious about these violations or you're not.

On a positive note, congratulations to Army, Air Force and Navy for all becoming bowl-eligible in the same year for the first time ever.  Also, congratulations to South Carolina for winning their first ever SEC East Championship; which really doesn't mean anything, unless you're a long-suffering Gamecocks fan.  And for that particular older gentleman that I met outside the stadium before that heartbreaking loss to Kentucky, who travels with his wife and another couple around the southeast to cheer on the Gamecocks, I hope you are able to get tickets to Atlanta and get to celebrate an SEC Championship.

That's all for now.  And at this time of year, be thankful for the MAC...allowing their to be college football from Tuesday through Saturday each week.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Picks for Nov. 13th Games

A nice week last ime out, going 3-1 and taking the season record to 15-13-1.

Stanford -5 at Arizona State - The Cardinal are the best one-loss team in the country and they'll show it Saturday against the erratic Sun Devils.  Stanford wins this one by 20.

Oregon -19.5 at Cal - Cal has won all four of their home games by at least 28 points.  Oregon has had trouble in the past when they go to Berkeley.  It doesn't matter.  Oregon gets up big early and with Bears starting quarterback Kevin Riley out for the season, the Ducks will have no problem covering the number.

at Kentucky -14 Vanderbilt - Kentucky becomes bowl eligible with a win today.  Vandy is just hoping to get through the rest of the season without any more season-ending injuries.  Wildcats roll, fans celebrate and then get ready for basketball season.

at Oklahoma -14.5 Texas Tech - Yes, the Sooners looked bad against Texas A&M last weekend. But now they're at home, where they are a completely different team over the last few years.  Texas Tech showed some signs of life against Missouri last week, but this week they roll over and play dead again.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Week 10 Top 10 and Thoughts

The season moves into it's final chapters with the opportunity for more 2007 deja vu, especially with LSU lurking around.
  1. Boise State - The plastering of Hawaii this weekend was every bit as impressive as TCU's throttling of Utah.  Hawaii came in on a roll, their top ranked passing offense was completely shut down by the Broncos defense and Boise State's offense had their way with the Warriors.  Kellen Moore threw for over 500 yards in a little over three quarters.
  2. Oregon - They fall back a spot after a lackluster first half against Washington.  But like they've done all year, they made the adjustments at halftime and got over 50 again.  The Ducks are the 1A team this week.
  3. TCU - That was an absolute "red-headed stepchild taken out behind the woodshed" beating of Utah this past Saturday (ironically led by the red-headed QB Andy Dalton).  The defense has now allowed 23 points in the last 6 games and no one has scored mre than 7 against them in that stretch.  They move ahead of Auburn because...
  4. Auburn - Played Chattanooga and gave up 24 points to them.  That's unacceptable.  If you hold Boise State and TCU to the "must destroy the lesser opponent" standards, when you drop down to take on a Div-IAA opponent, that means you have to do it on offense and defense.  And I have a sneaky feeling that Georgia is going to ruin Auburn's season before Alabama gets the chance.
  5. Stanford - The Cardinal are the big mover this week, moving from 9th to 5th.  Stanford crushed a good Arizona team, but because the East Coast goes to sleep as soon as their 7pm EST games end, they don't get to see the best one-loss team in the country.  Other than the loss to Oregon and the last-second victory over USC, no one has been closer than ten points.
  6. Wisconsin - A slow start against Purdue, but they got moving in the second half and beat the Boilermakers soundly.
  7. Even I think I'm nuts!
  8. LSU - And who is that lurking around, racking up win after win in scratch-your-head fashion?  It's the other Tigers in the SEC West.  LSU needs some help, but they have the chance to sneak into the SEC Title game and maybe even the BCS Championship.
  9. Nebraska - Fortunate to escape with a win over Iowa State this past weekend, they'll demolish Kansas this weekend, and if QB Taylor Martinez is 100% healthy, look for them to win by 45 or more.
  10. Oklahoma State - I wanted to put them in the 8th slot after their rout of a pretty good Baylor team, but I can't rank a team ahead of a team they lost to when they have identical records.  Cornhuskers 51, Cowboys 41. Nebraksa #8, Oklahoma State #9.
  11. Michigan State - Took care of business against Minnesota and are still in position to finish 11-1 and go to the Rose Bowl, but will need some help from Wisconsin's opponents.
On the outside loooking in:
  • Utah - You can't get run out of your own building in the first quarter like that.  The Utes weren't even competitive in the game against TCU and hopefully for them, this doesn't lead to a crash and burn finish to the season.  Utah! Don't feel sorry for yourself and go out there this weekend and crush Notre Dame.
  • Ohio State - I still keep asking...who have they played?  There schedule is no better than TCU or Boise State's.
  • Alabama - You're done.  Thankfully, I won't have to listen to Nick Saban pleading his case about his great one-loss defending National Champ should have the opportunity to defend it's title.  As they always say when they won't give the fans the playoff we want, "Every game in the regular season matters.  IT is the playoff."  With two losses, you're out.
Other thoughts on the games this weekend:

Wow.  Who would have guessed that after they're home loss to Baylor that Texas would be even worse at Kansas State? (Oh, yeah.  I did, picking the Wildcats to win outright as underdogs.) Kansas State beat the mighty Longhorns 39-14 with a grand total of 9 passing yards on four attempts.  They had no passing yards through the first 2 1/2 quarters. And a Mack Brown staff couldn't figure out what play K-State Coach Bill Snyder might be calling next and maybe load up for it?  This game was even uglier than it looked, with Texas being down 39-0 at one point and Longhorn QB Garrett Gilbert's five interceptions, including 3 straight passes.

Navy.  Where the hell did that come from? You take out Notre Dame easily then have a letdown the following week and let Duke beat you.  You then keep it close with East Carolina for the first 29 minutes of a 21-21 tie before going off like the 16-inch guns on the battleship USS Missouri and outscoring the Pirates 55-14 the rest of the way, setting a school scoring record with 76 points.  Who says the triple-option can't work in today's college football?

Illinois' triple-overtime 67-65 loss to Michigan was entertaining, but Wolverine fans have to wonder if their team can stop anybody. 

Impressive hurdling by Arizona State running back Cameron Marshall in the Sun Devils loss to USC.

Florida starts to come to life just when Steve Spurrier needs them to be playing like they were in week two.  South Carolina, in the Swamp, with the winner capturing the SEC East and the tripto the SEC Championship.  It would be nice to see the Gamecocks not flame out for once in the home stretch of the season and give those long-suffering fans a reason to put on their best cocktail dresses and head to Atlanta.

There was no way Colorado Coach Dan Hawkins was going to keep his job at the end of this year, but blowing a 45-17 lead with 11 minutes left, to Kansas, one of the worst teams in football this year, just brought the end about that much faster.  Think he wishes he was still coaching Boise State?

Fortunately for co-Big 12 North member Missouri, Colorado got the headlines as the biggest meltdown in the conference.  Missouri had a 17-3 lead on Texas Tech with under a minute to play in the first half.  The Tigers decided that was enough points for the day and ended up losing 24-17

Finally, congratulations to Joe Paterno on his 400th victory.  He's the one who hooked me on the Nittany Lions and college football so many years ago, and for that, I'm eternally grateful.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Picks for Nov. 5th Games

Season record moved to 12-12-1 after another 2-2 showing last week.  This week's picks:

Florida -14 at Vanderbilt - Florida finally found a little offense last week against Georgia.  Urban and the Gators have a little confidense on that side of the ball and Vandy's offense is no match for the Gator defense.  Florida has some fun in this one and Urban may even smile on the sidelines.

Missouri -4.5 at Texas Tech - Missouri was in a bad spot last week going to Nebraska after their big win against Oklahoma.  This week, they get the cure in a Texas Tech team who isn't very good on defense and not mediocre on offense.  Amazing how fast the Red Raiders have slipped into mediocrity.  The Tigers win big.

at Kansas State +3.5 Texas - Texas has struggled when they travel to Kansas State and with their overall problems this year, I like the Wildcats to win this game outright.

Tennessee -20 at Memphis - Tennessee isn't a good football team right now but they get a chance to show what might be possible in the future with a trip to the awful Memphis Tigers.  Memphis has given up more than 40 points in 6 of their 7 losses and have lost those six games by at least 22 points. Average score in those losses is 49-12.  Vols get a feel good weekend.