Down to the last full week of regular season games before Championship Saturday next week. A 3-2 weekend last week moved the season record to 37-22-1. A couple games for Friday this week in addition to Saturday.
at Central Michigan -18 Eastern Michigan - When the Michigan directional schools get together for a game, you can throw out the records; it's a battle for compass bragging rights. Central Michigan can finish their season with a 6-6 record with a win and a chance to go to a bowl game. Eastern Michigan can finish their season with 10 losses with a loss. The Chippewas have been playing better of late while the Eagles have been dreadful all year. Chips get up early and cruise in the second half.
at Central Florida -27 South Florida - Another directional battle, down in the Sunshine State. This one means a little more than the one in Michigan as UCF can clinch at least a tie for the American Athletic Conference with a win and be one step closer to a BCS bowl game. The Bulls have been a mess all year and have scored all of 9 offensive touchdowns this year. Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds had 7 in one game last week. The Knights have burned me in the past against the number but this week they take care of business and get their 10th win.
Rutgers -2.5 at Connecticut - This might be a trap game as Rutgers has looked really, really bad 4 of the last 5 weeks. But Connecticut has looked terrible all year (even though they finally got their first win by beating Temple last week). This game will probably be a dumpster fire to watch but I'm counting on the Scarlet Knights to pull out a close 7-3 or 14-10 type of game.
Alabama -10.5 at Auburn - Auburn has been a great story this year and have had a miracle season (see Auburn vs Georgia ending). Alabama has been a great story for five years. The Crimson Tide are a team on a mission. The Tigers may get a score or two early to get the fans roaring, but Alabama will do what Alabama does and continue to pound the ball on the ground and wear down the Auburn defense. It may be close at the half, but by the fourth quarter the Tide will have things well in hand as they get ready to go to the SEC Championship game.
Ohio State -16 at Michigan - I know, it's a rivalry game and you throw out the records when two long-time rivals play. But seriously, if you really look at rivalry games, how often does it happen that the vastly superior team loses to the inferior team? Not too often. They make for great stories when they do (UCLA over USC in 2006 comes to mind), but generally the better team wins. The Buckeyes are far superior to this year's version of the Wolverines. Michigan turns the ball over too much, the offense is erratic and they just won't have the firepower to keep up with Ohio State. Ohio State might hang half a hundred on the Maize and Blue and this won't be close.
Baylor -13 at TCU - Last week's loss to Oklahoma State was devastating for the Bears. They lost their undefeated season, lost control of the lead in the Big 12 and possibly a BCS bowl berth and an outside chance to play for the National Title. TCU has struggled all year and has not looked like a typical Gary Patterson coached team. Baylor bounces back from their whipping last week and gets back to being Baylor, hanging 40 plus on the Horned Frogs.
at Georgia Tech +3 Georgia - The loss of QB Aaron Murray for the Bulldogs last week seems like the unfortunate perfect exclamation point for the season of injuries Georgia had this year. Without him and the other season-ending injuries they've suffered, the Yellow Jackets triple-option attack will have a chance to move the ball and run off the clock. I'm picking Georgia Tech to win this game outright and line themselves up for a slightly better bowl game.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Saturday, November 23, 2013
Week 13 Picks
Last week was a disaster, only going 2-4 and dropping the season record to 34-20-1. A lot of dog games this week as teams play teams like The Citadel, Chattanooga and Coastal Carolina but there are still a few to pick.
Bowling Green -25.5 at Eastern Michigan - Bowling Green is tied for the MAC East lead and has a showdown with Buffalo next week for the right to go to the title game. Eastern Michigan has been blown out in almost every MAC game. The Falcons get a chance to fine tune everything before next week and they rip the Eagles.
Vanderbilt +2.5 at Tennessee - The Volunteers have been a better team at home than on the road but the only decent team they have beaten this year is South Carolina. Vanderbilt isn't a great team, but they are a decent team and have been playing well as of late. I like the Commodores to win this one outright and keep alive their chance for an 8-win season.
Wisconsin +16.5 at Minnesota - The Golden Gophers have had a very successful season by their recent standards. The Badgers have had a great season and except for a 7-point loss to Ohio State and a loss to the Pac-12 referees/Arizona State, they have been steamrolling opponents. Minnesota's rush defense isn't great and Wisconsin will exploit that. Badgers make this one ugly and keep the Paul Bunyan Axe.
Boise State -6 at San Diego State - The Aztecs have played better since an 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. Five of those wins have been by a touchdown or less. The Broncos have been rolling along as well with only a loss to BYU in their last six games. San Diego State upset Boise last year and this year the Broncos get their revenge this year.
East Carolina -6 at North Carolina State - Going with a fifth road team this week by taking the Pirates. The Wolfpack is on a six-game losing streak and they haven't really been close. East Carolina is scoring points in bunches and playing decent defense. They'll take out the Wolfpack and keep a 10-win season as a possibility.
Bowling Green -25.5 at Eastern Michigan - Bowling Green is tied for the MAC East lead and has a showdown with Buffalo next week for the right to go to the title game. Eastern Michigan has been blown out in almost every MAC game. The Falcons get a chance to fine tune everything before next week and they rip the Eagles.
Vanderbilt +2.5 at Tennessee - The Volunteers have been a better team at home than on the road but the only decent team they have beaten this year is South Carolina. Vanderbilt isn't a great team, but they are a decent team and have been playing well as of late. I like the Commodores to win this one outright and keep alive their chance for an 8-win season.
Wisconsin +16.5 at Minnesota - The Golden Gophers have had a very successful season by their recent standards. The Badgers have had a great season and except for a 7-point loss to Ohio State and a loss to the Pac-12 referees/Arizona State, they have been steamrolling opponents. Minnesota's rush defense isn't great and Wisconsin will exploit that. Badgers make this one ugly and keep the Paul Bunyan Axe.
Boise State -6 at San Diego State - The Aztecs have played better since an 0-3 start, winning 6 of their last 7. Five of those wins have been by a touchdown or less. The Broncos have been rolling along as well with only a loss to BYU in their last six games. San Diego State upset Boise last year and this year the Broncos get their revenge this year.
East Carolina -6 at North Carolina State - Going with a fifth road team this week by taking the Pirates. The Wolfpack is on a six-game losing streak and they haven't really been close. East Carolina is scoring points in bunches and playing decent defense. They'll take out the Wolfpack and keep a 10-win season as a possibility.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Week 12 Picks
Another 4-1 week last week that takes the season record to 32-16-1. Last week went with four SEC games; this week we'll go with three Pac 12 games. Starting the weekend early with a Friday night game.
at UCLA -2.5 Washington - The Bruins have been fantastic at home and the Huskies have been less
than stellar on the road. If UCLA can contain running back Bishop Sankey and make quarterback Keith Price have to beat them, I think the Bruins can force a couple of turnovers they can turn into points. UCLA should be fired up for this game in their black Midnight uniforms and will win by a touchdown or more.
West Virginia -6.5 at Kansas - Granted, the Jayhawks might have a "decided schematic advantage" under coach Charlie Weis, but that still doesn't get around the fact that their players aren't very good. Yes, the Mountaineers haven't been exactly world beaters either, but they did beat Oklahoma State, they played Texas tough last week and covering a touchdown against a bad Kansas team should be too hard.
Stanford -3.5 at USC - I'll grant that USC is playing better since they got rid of Lane Kiffin. And the win at Oregon State was nice. And last week the offense showed up in a rout of Cal. But the other team from the Bay Area...they actually play defense. This is one of those games that might be close for a half, maybe even in to the third quarter. And then Stanford's pounding style will start to wear out the Trojans and the lack of depth due to the scholarship limitations will truly show. Look for a double-digit victory for the Cardinal and keeping their slim national title hopes alive.
at Arizona -11 Washington State - The Cougars are improving under Mike Leach. Unfortunately, they still don't have the talent they need to compete with the good to really good teams in the Pac 12. They've lost four of their last five, and all of those by 24 points or more. The Wildcats at home will get back on track after their close loss to UCLA last week and maul the Cougars.
at South Carolina -12.5 Florida - This one could get ugly. The Gators have been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball this year. The Gamecocks still have a shot at winning the SEC East and playing for the SEC Championship. Florida has no offense whatsoever and if they get down 10-0 or 14-3 early, this one will be done by halftime. Look for Carolina and coach Steve Spurrier to kick them while their down and roll to an easy victory.
Michigan State -6 at Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have been living lucky the last two weeks with a Hail Mary victory over Northwestern and a last minute win against Michigan. Unfortunately, those two opponents aren't very good and are really reeling. On the other hand, the Spartans are rolling and are somehow flying way under the radar at 8-1 with an absolutely nasty defense. That defense will more than keep Nebraska in check and chalk up another easy win.
 |
| UCLA Bruins Midnight Uniform |
than stellar on the road. If UCLA can contain running back Bishop Sankey and make quarterback Keith Price have to beat them, I think the Bruins can force a couple of turnovers they can turn into points. UCLA should be fired up for this game in their black Midnight uniforms and will win by a touchdown or more.
West Virginia -6.5 at Kansas - Granted, the Jayhawks might have a "decided schematic advantage" under coach Charlie Weis, but that still doesn't get around the fact that their players aren't very good. Yes, the Mountaineers haven't been exactly world beaters either, but they did beat Oklahoma State, they played Texas tough last week and covering a touchdown against a bad Kansas team should be too hard.
Stanford -3.5 at USC - I'll grant that USC is playing better since they got rid of Lane Kiffin. And the win at Oregon State was nice. And last week the offense showed up in a rout of Cal. But the other team from the Bay Area...they actually play defense. This is one of those games that might be close for a half, maybe even in to the third quarter. And then Stanford's pounding style will start to wear out the Trojans and the lack of depth due to the scholarship limitations will truly show. Look for a double-digit victory for the Cardinal and keeping their slim national title hopes alive.
at Arizona -11 Washington State - The Cougars are improving under Mike Leach. Unfortunately, they still don't have the talent they need to compete with the good to really good teams in the Pac 12. They've lost four of their last five, and all of those by 24 points or more. The Wildcats at home will get back on track after their close loss to UCLA last week and maul the Cougars.
Michigan State -6 at Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have been living lucky the last two weeks with a Hail Mary victory over Northwestern and a last minute win against Michigan. Unfortunately, those two opponents aren't very good and are really reeling. On the other hand, the Spartans are rolling and are somehow flying way under the radar at 8-1 with an absolutely nasty defense. That defense will more than keep Nebraska in check and chalk up another easy win.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Week 11 Picks
After going 4-1 last week, the season record moved to 28-15-1. Looking to keep it rolling this weekend with a number of games in the SEC.
Missouri -13.5 at Kentucky - With Oregon's loss on Thursday night, a potential window has opened for Missouri. Win out (and win convincingly), beat Alabama in the SEC Title game and maybe look at a National Title shot. It starts against Kentucky and the Tigers should be able to tame the Wildcats.
Auburn -7.5 at Tennessee - Auburn is another SEC team who was helped out by the Ducks loss. If they can run the table and beat a one-loss Missouri in the SEC Title game, they might end up in the National Title game. The Tigers top 10 rushing offense goes up against Tennessee's not very good rushing defense and their tempo should wear out the Volunteers in an easy win.
at Alabama -12 LSU - This has been a very close game the last few years, at least in the regular season. LSU is one of the few teams who doesn't seem to fear playing the Crimson Tide...but this year, the Tigers defense isn't what it's been in the past and the big weakness is the run defense and Alabama's strength is the running game. The Tide will wear out the LSU defense and Alabama's defense will force a couple turnovers as the Tide rolls.
at Mississippi -17 Arkansas - The Razorbacks are not very good and they are skidding out of control like Bobby Petrino on a motorcycle right now. Ole Miss gets bowl eligible with a win against Arkansas. The Rebels only losses this year are to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks haven't been competitive at all against good teams this year, losing their last five games by double-digits. Ole Miss wins easily and gets bowl eligible.
USC -16.5 at Cal - The Trojans have played very well since Lane Kiffin got fired, especially the defense. Cal's defense hasn't played well all year and the offense has only been average. USC won't need a lot of points to win this game and their defense should be able to hold the Bears down and cover the number.
Missouri -13.5 at Kentucky - With Oregon's loss on Thursday night, a potential window has opened for Missouri. Win out (and win convincingly), beat Alabama in the SEC Title game and maybe look at a National Title shot. It starts against Kentucky and the Tigers should be able to tame the Wildcats.
Auburn -7.5 at Tennessee - Auburn is another SEC team who was helped out by the Ducks loss. If they can run the table and beat a one-loss Missouri in the SEC Title game, they might end up in the National Title game. The Tigers top 10 rushing offense goes up against Tennessee's not very good rushing defense and their tempo should wear out the Volunteers in an easy win.
at Alabama -12 LSU - This has been a very close game the last few years, at least in the regular season. LSU is one of the few teams who doesn't seem to fear playing the Crimson Tide...but this year, the Tigers defense isn't what it's been in the past and the big weakness is the run defense and Alabama's strength is the running game. The Tide will wear out the LSU defense and Alabama's defense will force a couple turnovers as the Tide rolls.
at Mississippi -17 Arkansas - The Razorbacks are not very good and they are skidding out of control like Bobby Petrino on a motorcycle right now. Ole Miss gets bowl eligible with a win against Arkansas. The Rebels only losses this year are to Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks haven't been competitive at all against good teams this year, losing their last five games by double-digits. Ole Miss wins easily and gets bowl eligible.
USC -16.5 at Cal - The Trojans have played very well since Lane Kiffin got fired, especially the defense. Cal's defense hasn't played well all year and the offense has only been average. USC won't need a lot of points to win this game and their defense should be able to hold the Bears down and cover the number.
Friday, November 1, 2013
Week 10 Pics
A good run last week, going 3-1-1 (thanks, Virginia Tech for showing no offense against Duke). The season record moved to 24-14-1 and look to continue the winning ways this weekend.
Northern Illinois -25 at Massachusetts - The Huskies have a chance to go BCS bowling again this year. They're undefeated, quarterback Jordan Lynch got the hat trick last weekend (4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD) and they need to continue to impress voters. The Minutemen played Western Michigan close last week but Northern Illinois is in a completely different class and will hammer Massachusetts on their way to 9-0.
Clemson -18 at Virginia - I generally don't like double-digit road favorites in BCS conference games late in the season, but the Cavaliers have shown almost nothing this year and the Tigers still have a chance to get to the ACC Championship (especially if Miami helps them out later Saturday night against Florida State). Look for Clemson to shake off the rust they showed against Maryland last week and shut down Virginia.
Arizona -16 at Cal - Another double-digit road favorite in a BCS conference game. But Cal is absolutely terrible on defense and their offense seems to be regressing as the season goes along. The Wildcats balanced offense will get them up early and their running game will close out the Bears.
Auburn -7.5 at Arkansas - Arkansas' season has not gone as they hoped under new coach Bret Bielema. Auburn's has gone far better than expected under new coach Gus Malzahn. The Tigers hurry-up offense will be destroy the Razorbacks this Saturday and the hog fan base will start to make things a little hot for Bielema.
Wisconsin -9.5 at Iowa - Wisconsin is in a good spot here. Coming off a bye week and Iowa coming off a hard fought 17-10 overtime win against Northwestern. The Badger running backs have been running wild and they should be able to continue that trend against the Hawkeyes.
Northern Illinois -25 at Massachusetts - The Huskies have a chance to go BCS bowling again this year. They're undefeated, quarterback Jordan Lynch got the hat trick last weekend (4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD) and they need to continue to impress voters. The Minutemen played Western Michigan close last week but Northern Illinois is in a completely different class and will hammer Massachusetts on their way to 9-0.
Clemson -18 at Virginia - I generally don't like double-digit road favorites in BCS conference games late in the season, but the Cavaliers have shown almost nothing this year and the Tigers still have a chance to get to the ACC Championship (especially if Miami helps them out later Saturday night against Florida State). Look for Clemson to shake off the rust they showed against Maryland last week and shut down Virginia.
Arizona -16 at Cal - Another double-digit road favorite in a BCS conference game. But Cal is absolutely terrible on defense and their offense seems to be regressing as the season goes along. The Wildcats balanced offense will get them up early and their running game will close out the Bears.
Auburn -7.5 at Arkansas - Arkansas' season has not gone as they hoped under new coach Bret Bielema. Auburn's has gone far better than expected under new coach Gus Malzahn. The Tigers hurry-up offense will be destroy the Razorbacks this Saturday and the hog fan base will start to make things a little hot for Bielema.
Wisconsin -9.5 at Iowa - Wisconsin is in a good spot here. Coming off a bye week and Iowa coming off a hard fought 17-10 overtime win against Northwestern. The Badger running backs have been running wild and they should be able to continue that trend against the Hawkeyes.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)