Saturday, August 30, 2014

Week 1 Picks

Started off the season 1-1 in the early games. Who knew South Carolina would completely forget how to cover and tackle? On to Saturday's games. Just quick blurbs on the games.

Florida State -17.5 Oklahoma State - Defending National Champions are still loaded and should handle the Cowboys easily.

UCLA -19 at Virginia - The opening game in the Bruins drive for one of the playoff spots. Slow start, roll in the second half.

Boston College -17 at Massachusetts - BC will run all over the hapless Minutemen. Will probably slow it down a little in the 4th quarter.

Marshall -24 at Miami, OH - The Thundering Herd destroyed Miami last year 52-14. The Redhawks aren't vastly better this year and Marshall returns their quarterback and big receivers. This one gets ugly in a hurry.

Ohio State -14.5 at Navy - Braxton Miller might be out for the season, but the Buckeyes are still light years ahead in talent over the Midshipmen. Ohio State gets up early and gets their backups experience.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

It's Back!

Once again, the best time of the year is upon us. Less than 24 hours until the start of another college football season. In the next 72 hours, the 2014 season will be well underway, and most teams will still have their hopes of being one of the Final Four for the first college football playoff intact; since for the most part they scheduled schools who would be challenged beating an egg. Hats off to those schools who actually scheduled someone who has a pulse.

Finally, the commissioners of the major conferences decided that a playoff format was the best way to determine a true champion (like all the other college sports). Sure, the allure of all that money they were leaving on the table the last dozen years or so probably had something to do with the decision, but at least they finally came around to what the fans have been wanting for decades and got rid of that BCS atrocity.

I always love the start of the college football season. It's like Christmas morning when I was 10. But this year has the new wrinkle of the playoff. And someone is going to be disappointed. With only four spots for the Power Five Conferences, someone is going to be left without a chair (maybe only three spots if the SEC has their way...who am I kidding. If the SEC had their way, it would be four SEC teams in the playoff.). My hope is that it makes the regular season even more important and if they truly look at strength of schedule to determine the four teams and someone gets left out because of it -- looking at you Oklahoma, Baylor and Ohio State -- it will cause teams to schedule even better games during the regular season in the future, which just makes every Saturday even better.

I LOVE Crab Legs!!! -
Jameis Winston, Florida State QB
So, who gets those four golden tickets this year? Florida State seems like a lock for one of them. They're still loaded, have the returning Heisman Trophy winner and have a schedule that looks very manageable. The winner of the SEC is almost assuredly in, just based on their track record the last eight years. The winner of the Pac-12 is probably in, as long as they don't have more than one loss; two losses is possible, but they better be really close or fluky. That leaves one spot for either the Big 10 (12? 14?), the Big XII (X?) or SEC runner-up. Ohio State was probably set up pretty well, with a cream puff schedule, but the loss of quarterback Braxton Miller for the year probably dashes those dreams. I'll go with a final four of Florida State, Oregon, Oklahoma and Alabama.

And as I do every year, my predictions for the UCLA Bruins for my lifelong friend and Bruins fan who encouraged me to start this blog based on my e-mail predictions for his Bruins. All of this is contingent on Brett Hundley starting at quarterback all year for UCLA. Returning for another season as a QB when you have an option to go pro has not worked out well in recent years for Pac-12 quarterbacks (Matt Barkley the most recent example) and here's hoping that's not the case for Hundley.

We play football?!?!
at Virginia - A nice out of conference opponent to start the season, though the early morning start on the east coast has been an issue in the past for Pac-12 teams. Still, UCLA should be more than ready to make an opening weekend statement and should pull away in the second half to knock off the Cavaliers. 1-0

Memphis - Outside of Cal, probably the easiest game on the Bruins schedule. A nice home opener and a 2-0 start to the season. (Memphis does have some decent cheerleaders, for those attending the game.)

at Texas - This should be an interesting game...on the Longhorn side. Will they have bought into what new head coach Charlie Strong tried to instill this off-season or will they still be struggling with their identity? Texas is a little short-handed for this match-up and the Bruins finish out of conference play perfect at 3-0.

at Arizona State - Last year's game was a disaster for the Bruins, falling behind big in the first half. They rallied to make it close, but still came up short, essentially costing them a shot at a third straight Pac-12 South title. Payback is a bitch, and the Sun Devils are going to get theirs. 4-0

Utah - If the Bruins are serious about being one of the Final Four this year, they need to bury the Utes, which they should do, so they can get rested for the next test to see if they really belong. 5-0

Oregon - This is very likely a preview of the Pac-12 Championship game. The Ducks have owned UCLA the last five years and it hasn't even been remotely close, with the Bruins giving up points in huge bunches. But the Bruins have Oregon at home and the Ducks seem to always have that one hiccup game a year. Stil, I expect the Ducks to be rolling by this time and they'll win by double digits. The loss won't kill the Bruins chances for the Final Four, but it will put Oregon in the driver's seat for one of the spots. 5-1

at Cal - The Bears were an absolute mess last year, with a defense that was shredded week in and week out. In the past, this still might have been a problem for UCLA, as strange things have happened in Berkeley. Not this year. The starters are out by the end of the third quarter and the only question will be how many style points do the Bruins want. 6-1

at Colorado - The Buffaloes haven't been a good football team for quite awhile now. UCLA should be able to get up early and coast to a three-touchdown win. 7-1

Arizona - This will be interesting. The Bruins have won the last two against the Wildcats, but are 3-6 the last nine years, with some ugly, ugly blowout losses in there, when they were clearly the better team. Bruins make it three in a row this year. 8-1

at Washington - The Huskies should be a better team defensively with Chris Petersen at the helm. It probably won't be enough to stop the Bruins this year. 9-1

USC - Rivalry games are always tricky, and if the Trojans manage to stay healthy all year, this could be for the Pac-12 South. It's at the Rose Bowl, the Bruins have something special going on this year and USC won't have enough depth to overcome a team on a mission. 10-1

Stanford - Like the Ducks, the Cardinal are another team that has had the Bruins number the last few years. Granted, Stanford has been incredibly good the last five years and have beaten almost everyone they've played, especially in the Pac-12. But this year feels like it will be different. Stanford coach David Shaw didn't seem to adjust well to a changing game plan in the Rose Bowl against Michigan State (and a few other games during the regular season that they still won). Jim Mora will have his team mixing it up on offense and defense and the Pac-12 South will be UCLA's for the third time in four years. 11-1

Our "O Face"
An 11-1 season. This will bring back memories of the Bob Toledo/Cade McNown days, when UCLA won 20 in a row and then a hurricane (and the Hurricanes) messed up everything (and the fact that the Bruins forgot how to tackle). Pac-12 South Champions and a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. Unfortunately for the Bruins, the Ducks get the better of them again and UCLA has to settle for a home game on New Year's Day in the Rose Bowl.

A couple of early picks before Saturday's full slate of games.

at South Carolina -10.5 Texas A&M - The Aggies defense was terrible last year. The Gamecocks should be able to take advantage of that. South Carolina hasn't lost an opener since 1999, and have won 7 of the last 10 openers by double digits.

BYU -16.5 at Connecticut - The Huskies are not a good team. They lost to Towson 33-18 in their opener last year. I'll take the Cougars to run, run and run some more against UConn and the BYU defense to stifle the Huskies offense.

Enjoy the dawn of a new era of college football...and the start of a whole bunch of new arguments on who should be the fourth team in.

Also, if you get the SEC channel, there was a pretty good documentary that ran tonight about Steve Spurrier called "The Believer". Love him or hate him (I fall in the former camp), it brought back some great memories about the Fun and Gun offense of those 1990's Florida teams...and it even included that epic beatdown they took from Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl. Watch it if you get the chance.